30-year mortgage rate 01
7.28%+0.25 percentage points week over week
Freddie Mac · Oct 1, 2026THE NATIONAL PICTURE
Your market at a glance.
Borrowing costs, housing supply, and the next questions to ask.
FOR NEW-HOME SALES
Compare the full monthly payment, rate buydown, and closing-cost credit. Confirm local competing inventory before drawing conclusions from national supply.
Explore your local market15-year mortgage rate 02
6.60%+0.18 percentage points week over week
Freddie Mac · Oct 1, 2026Existing-home sales 03
3.98MSeasonally adjusted annual pace
NAR · August 2026Months of supply 04
4.9moInventory relative to the sales pace
NAR · August 2026See the mortgage-rate comparison
BORROWING COSTS
A tougher week for affordability
Two weekly observations · zero baseline · Freddie Mac PMMS
HOW TO READ THIS
Payment pressure stays in focus.
Higher borrowing costs put pressure on monthly budgets. More inventory can give buyers more choice, but bargaining power still depends on the neighborhood and the home.
ANALYSIS, NOT A FORECAST
Watch pending sales, price reductions, and local supply together. One national number cannot tell you what an individual home should sell for.
This is a researched snapshot, not a live feed. Mortgage averages are benchmarks, not lender quotes. National existing-home data does not describe every local or new-home market.
CITY · COUNTY · REGION · STATE · NATIONAL
Explore your market.
Checking update status…
Geographic home-value data · publication dates remain visible
Choose an area, then see its trend against the broader market.
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Typical home value
—Annual value change
—Same month a year earlier
Monthly value change
—Smoothed, seasonally adjusted
Compared with the broader market
—WHERE ARE HOME VALUES HOLDING UP BETTER?
North Texas
WeakerNear benchmarkStrongerNo comparable data
Stronger means better relative performance. Values can still be falling in a stronger area. This map tracks estimated home values—not whether a home is a good deal.
Click an area or use the ranked list to open its trends. City circles mark representative locations, not municipal boundaries. Alaska and Hawaii appear as insets.
See leading areas
COMPARE LIKE WITH LIKE
Leading areas on this measure
See historical trends
THE DIRECTION OVER TIME
Home-value trend
Each series starts at 100 in the first common available month shown. This compares percentage movement, not dollar prices.
View chart data
| Month | Location value | Benchmark value |
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How this works · definitions and calculations
This map measures home-value resilience using Zillow’s Home Value Index (ZHVI): a modeled typical home value for all homes in the middle value tier, smoothed and seasonally adjusted. It is not median sale price, a lender appraisal, or a forecast.
Percentage points: the difference between two percentages. For example, if local values fall 1% while the U.S. falls 3%, the local area held up better by 2 percentage points. This is an illustration, not current market data.
Annual change: (current value ÷ value 12 months earlier − 1) × 100. Relative performance: location annual change minus benchmark annual change, expressed in percentage points. 3-month change: (current value ÷ value 3 months earlier − 1) × 100. Colors use a fixed scale from −5 to +5; extreme values keep the endpoint color. “Near average” means less than 0.5 percentage points from the comparison; the continuous colors show smaller differences too.
Green means stronger on the selected measure. An area can outperform the benchmark while still losing value. These are value trends—not a combined measure of sales, inventory, affordability, or builder incentives. There is no invented composite score.
Local selectors cover Texas cities, counties, and metros. State comparisons cover the 50 states and Washington, D.C. “DFW” on the county map means the 11 counties listed below; it is not an undefined North Texas average. City coverage follows Zillow’s Dallas–Fort Worth metro membership. Zillow’s “Dallas, TX” metro series is displayed as Dallas–Fort Worth.
Missing current or comparison values remain unranked and gray. Zillow’s model does not supply a transaction count for this index, so the map makes no claim about sales sample size. City county labels follow the provider’s assigned county; some cities span more than one county.
Zillow Research data and definitions · Census city representative points · Census-derived map boundaries (US Atlas, simplified)
Compare markets side by side
ONE PERIOD. ONE MEASURE. FOUR MARKETS.
Put your markets side by side.
Compare nearby cities or widen the view. Every column uses the same home-value index and reporting month.
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| Measure |
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A stronger home-value trend is not necessarily a better purchase or investment. Missing comparison values appear as dashes.
KNOW WHAT YOU ARE READING
What does this number tell you?
FROM THE HEADLINE TO THE HOUSING MARKET
Why it’s changing. What could follow.
Checked every two days. Source reporting dates remain visible; new checks may find no new releases.
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How energy costs can reach the housing market
CONNECT THE DOTS
What could reopening Hormuz change?
A sustained recovery in exports could ease oil and shipping costs. That may reduce inflation pressure, then influence bond yields and mortgage pricing. Each link depends on other conditions.
01Exports recover
More reliable supply and lower disruption risk
02Costs may ease
Oil and transport costs respond to supply and demand
03Inflation pressure may cool
Energy relief interacts with wages and service prices
04Financing may respond
Bond markets price the full economic outlook
Conditional mechanism, not a guaranteed chain of events. EIA energy outlook · Federal Reserve policy
See upcoming releases
The next evidence to watch
Announced release dates · check the source for changes
A CONDITIONAL OUTLOOK
Several paths. Clear conditions.
These scenarios connect the reviewed evidence to possible housing outcomes. They are not a statistical forecast or a promise of a particular mortgage rate or home price.
Loading the regional starting point…
See published forecasts from other sources
PUBLISHED OUTLOOKS FROM OTHER SOURCES
Keep outside forecasts separate.
Texas employment: +1.2% in 2026
The Dallas Fed’s forecast has an 80% confidence band of 0.8%–1.6%. This is a jobs forecast, not a DFW home-price forecast.
Read its model and assumptionsOil outlook depends on export recovery
EIA projected Brent averaging about $90 per barrel in the second half of 2026 and $74 in 2027. Its model inputs were finalized September 3.
Read its forecast and assumptionsHow to review a scenario
REVIEW THE REASONING
What would make this view wrong?
Use the change-of-view signals on each scenario. Compare new evidence with the original conditions rather than treating any one headline as confirmation.
BUYER EXPLANATIONS
Understand your loan choices.
Start with the tradeoffs. Compare actual lender offers before choosing.
General educational information only. Home Buyer Lens is not acting as your fiduciary, mortgage lender, financial adviser or decision maker. This guide is not personalized financial, legal or tax advice, a loan approval, or a recommendation to select a loan. Eligibility, fees, limits and lender rules change. Confirm your situation with a licensed loan officer and compare written Loan Estimates.
Common loans · Conventional, FHA & VA
COMMON CHOICE
Conventional · “Con”
A mortgage outside a specific government-insured loan program.
Pros, tradeoffs & useful facts
Potential advantages
Different down-payment and property-use options. With 20% down, borrower-paid PMI generally is not required.
Tradeoffs
With less than 20% down, PMI is typically required. Credit, down payment and lender pricing affect the offer; a conventional loan is not automatically the least expensive choice.
Good to know
“Conventional” does not mean “20% down required.” Qualifying low-down-payment programs exist. Conforming and jumbo loans are different categories; county limits change.
Ask your lender
How does the total cost compare with FHA? When could PMI be removed, and what conditions apply?
GOVERNMENT INSURANCE
FHA
A private lender’s mortgage insured by the Federal Housing Administration.
Pros, tradeoffs & useful facts
Potential advantages
Down payments can be as low as 3.5% for qualifying borrowers. FHA can provide another route when conventional terms are harder to qualify for.
Tradeoffs
Most FHA loans have upfront and ongoing mortgage insurance. A lower interest rate does not necessarily mean a lower total monthly cost.
Good to know
FHA is not limited to first-time buyers. Mortgage insurance rules differ from conventional PMI; do not assume it disappears at 20% equity.
Ask your lender
What are the upfront and monthly premiums, how long do they last, and how does the full payment compare with conventional?
FEDERAL VETERAN BENEFIT
VA
For eligible Veterans, service members and certain surviving spouses, subject to lender approval.
Pros, tradeoffs & useful facts
Potential advantages
Often no required down payment, subject to entitlement, appraisal and lender requirements. No monthly PMI or FHA mortgage insurance.
Tradeoffs
A funding fee may apply unless exempt. Closing costs, occupancy requirements and property standards still matter.
Good to know
VA benefits can be used more than once. No down payment does not mean no cash needed at closing, or that the purchase can exceed the appraisal without extra funds.
Ask your lender
Am I exempt from the funding fee? What entitlement is available? What seller credits and rate buydowns are allowed?
Less common & Texas programs · USDA & VLB
LOCATION & INCOME MATTER
USDA · Guaranteed
A lender-issued program for eligible primary residences in qualifying rural areas.
Pros, tradeoffs & useful facts
Potential advantages
100% financing can be available to qualifying households. Eligibility is address-specific; check the official map rather than guessing from a city name.
Tradeoffs
Adjusted household income must stay within the program limit. The property and borrower must meet program and lender requirements.
Good to know
It is not that USDA “dislikes extra income.” Eligible income from adult household members can count toward the income cap, even if they are not on the loan. Extra earnings may improve repayment ability while making the household ineligible. Income exclusions and deductions require lender review.
Ask your lender
Which household income counts? What is our current adjusted-income limit? Is this exact address eligible? The USDA Direct program has different rules.
TEXAS STATE PROGRAM
Texas Veterans Land Board · Home loan
The VLB Veterans Housing Assistance Program is distinct from the federal VA benefit.
Pros, tradeoffs & useful facts
Potential advantages
Eligible Texas Veterans and military members can compare a program-set fixed rate through participating lenders. A qualifying VA service-connected disability rating of 30% or greater may provide a rate discount.
Tradeoffs
Texas eligibility and program requirements apply. The home must be the primary residence for at least three years. VLB does not offer refinancing.
Good to know
VLB publishes a base rate that can change weekly. Do not assume a builder incentive can buy that rate down further. The official overview does not establish a blanket rule on additional points or temporary buydowns; ask the participating lender to confirm permitted uses in writing.
Ask your lender
Can I use this with my federal VA benefit? What are the current rate-lock and discount rules? Can funds for lending cover closing costs, points or a temporary buydown under this specific program?
SPECIALTY PURCHASE
Texas VLB · Land loan
A separate state program for eligible land purchases, not the same product as a VLB home mortgage.
Pros, tradeoffs & useful facts
Potential advantages
A dedicated land-financing option for eligible Texas Veterans and military members.
Tradeoffs
A minimum down payment and property requirements apply. Land financing does not automatically finance a future home or construction costs.
Good to know
VLB has separate land, home and home-improvement programs. Check the current program terms rather than applying home-loan rules to vacant land.
Ask your lender
Does the tract qualify? How would construction be financed later, and what cash would each step require?
Specialty & assistance · Low down payment, TSAHC, jumbo & renovation
LOW-DOWN-PAYMENT CONVENTIONAL
HomeReady & Home Possible
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac programs that can offer down payments as low as 3% to qualifying buyers.
Pros, tradeoffs & useful facts
Potential advantages
A smaller down payment and flexible eligible funding sources. Home Possible offers reduced PMI; mortgage insurance cancellation remains subject to requirements.
Tradeoffs
Qualifying income generally cannot exceed 80% of area median income for the property location. Mortgage insurance, credit, occupancy and other eligibility requirements still apply.
Good to know
These are conventional mortgages, not separate government-insured loan types. HomeReady is not limited to first-time buyers. The qualifying-income calculation differs from USDA’s household-income test.
Ask your lender
Do I qualify for either program? How do PMI, rate, cash to close and education requirements compare with standard conventional or FHA?
TEXAS BUYER ASSISTANCE
TSAHC · Down-payment assistance
Assistance paired with a participating lender’s mortgage through programs such as Home Sweet Texas and Homes for Texas Heroes.
Pros, tradeoffs & useful facts
Potential advantages
Eligible buyers may receive help with down payment and closing costs through a grant or a deferred forgivable second lien.
Tradeoffs
Income, program eligibility and homebuyer education requirements apply. Compare the complete mortgage pricing, not just the assistance amount. Builder incentives cannot automatically be combined with every assistance offer.
Good to know
“Assistance” does not always mean unconditional free money. TSAHC’s grant terms can require repayment if the first mortgage is refinanced or paid off within six months. Its three-year forgivable second lien has conditions related to selling, refinancing or moving out.
Ask your lender
Which assistance type is offered? What triggers repayment? Can it be combined with our builder funds? What is the payment and total cost with and without assistance?
LARGER LOAN AMOUNTS
Jumbo
A mortgage above the applicable conforming loan limit.
Potential advantage
Can finance a larger loan amount when conforming financing does not fit.
Tradeoffs
Lender rules vary; stronger credit, more cash reserves or a larger down payment may be required. Compare several offers.
Good to know
The loan amount—not simply the home price—determines whether the conforming limit is exceeded. Limits vary by year and county.
Ask your lender
Would a different down payment keep the loan conforming? How do rate, reserves, fees and qualification differ?
CFPB · conforming and jumbo loansBUY & IMPROVE
FHA 203(k) & HomeStyle Renovation
Programs that can combine eligible renovation costs with purchase financing.
Potential advantage
One financing arrangement for the home and eligible improvements, rather than arranging a separate renovation loan.
Tradeoffs
Eligible work, contractor documentation, completion timelines and lender processes add requirements. FHA mortgage insurance and HomeStyle conventional terms differ.
Good to know
These are more relevant to homes needing improvements than a typical builder options package. They do not automatically finance every project or substitute for a new-construction loan.
Ask your lender
Does the property and planned work qualify? Who approves the contractor and releases funds? What happens if costs or completion dates change?
HUD · FHA 203(k) · Fannie Mae · HomeStyleA useful comparison checklist
Compare the same price, down payment and rate-lock period. Ask for interest rate, APR, points, mortgage insurance, cash to close and payment after any temporary buydown ends. Builder credits are subject to lender limits and eligible uses; an unused credit is not automatically cash back.
Work through options and incentive funds →